I wrote this piece before Andrea
Leadsom dropped out of the Conservative leadership election on 11 July, making
it all but certain that our next Prime Minister will be Theresa May. This is, I
think, a positive outcome. Andrea Leadsom deserves credit for identifying that
she would struggle to unite the Parliamentary Conservative Party, and that a lengthy
leadership election is not in the national interest. Similarly the speed with
which the Parliamentary Conservative Party selected a new leader, who is both
unifying and electable, is worthy of praise, and demonstrates why the Party has
spent so much of the Post-1945 period in Government. It’s easy, and worthwhile,
to compare this with the difficulties which the Labour Party has had with its
leadership since Miliband resigned in 2015. This piece is clearly dated, and in
this context some of the language used to describe Leadsom may be unnecessarily
harsh, reflecting the passions created by Brexit and the leadership election. Nevertheless
it’s still a good summary of why I think that, at this moment in our history,
Theresa May is an appropriate choice for Prime Minister. Also, at this stage, this
blog (quite understandably) has virtually no readership at all, so there’s not
much that this piece can do to damage its reputation.
Britain
needs a new Prime Minister. This is, in my view, unfortunate. David Cameron
has, on the whole, been a good Prime Minister. Not perfect for sure, or even
great, but certainly good. Under his Government’s the economy has performed
well, with reasonable growth and impressive job creation figures. But the
Brexit vote on June 23 holed Cameron’s authority below the
waterline, and he correctly assessed that he needs to stand down. It’s a shame,
and in many ways unfair, that Cameron will probably be best remembered as the
Prime Minister who presided over a Brexit vote. All the indications so far
suggest that ‘Project Fear’ will turn into ‘Project Fact’, and that we are
entering a period of profound economic, political and constitutional
turbulence. It is quite possible that Britain won’t survive this turbulence as
a political unit, most likely due to the departure of Scotland. But we are
where we are. What we need is someone to steady the ship, and in so far as this
is possible, clear up the mess.
Conservative
MPs, representing millions of voters, have narrowed the choice down to two
candidates, Home Secretary Theresa May or Energy Minister Andrea Leadsom. The
final choice will be made by the 125,000 or so strong Conservative Party
membership. There is, I’ll admit, something of a grotesque irony in all this.
The Brexit campaign urged us to ‘Take Back Control’, and won the referendum.
And yet our next Prime Minister will be selected by a tiny, and highly
atypical, section of the population. And this choice is of unusual importance.
The stakes for our country are very high indeed. Since Brexit Sterling has
slumped to a 30 year low against the Dollar, Britain’s credit rating has taken
a battering, the FTSE 250 is still well down and we face constitutional crisis
about the position of Scotland, and possibly Northern Ireland, within the
Union. On top of this we need to re-negotiate our relationship with the
European Union, re-negotiate all the trade deals we used to benefit from as a
result of EU membership and decide how much EU origin law to keep on our
statute books. In short, the job for the next Prime Minister is going to be
bloody difficult. It’s a wonder anyone wants the job.
Considering
how high the stakes are it’s vital that our next Prime Minister is experienced
in Government, can unite the country and has a track record of competence.
Theresa May, in my view, fulfils all three of these criteria. May has served on
the Conservative’s frontbench team since 1998, and has held the position of
Home Secretary since May 2010. Being Home Secretary, one of the top jobs in
Government and one fraught with risk, for over 6 years is a very impressive
achievement. In short she wouldn’t have lasted that long unless she was very
good. Which she is. On her watch crime has continued to fall, despite economic
turbulence, and when necessary she has been prepared to confront the likes of
the Police Federation. I’ll admit I know relatively little about Andrea
Leadsom, which, if I’m honest, is part of what concerns me. Until a few weeks
ago, before she took part in Brexit TV debates, I’d barely heard of her. My
suspicion is that the same applies to many of her current supporters. She’s
probably a perfectly good Energy Minister – certainly I’ve heard nothing to the
contrary. But quite frankly, given the challenges our country faces, that’s not
good enough. This is no time to take a gamble.
Whilst my
knowledge of Leadsom’s background is limited, what I do know does raise some
questions about her judgement. It seems clear that her CV has been somewhat
embellished, and she’s on record as advocating massaging the prefrontal cortex
of babies, a quackish medical treatment. During the referendum campaign she
responded to concerns raised by Mark Carney by describing him as ‘an ex-Goldman
Sachs banker’, who ‘has encouraged financial instability’. A potential Prime
Minister would usually take the concerns of the Governor of the Bank of England
seriously, not dismiss them out of hand and then target him with wild
accusations. But this is the year 2016, where in politics anything seems to go.
I mentioned
earlier that our next Prime Minister will be selected by a small, and very
unrepresentative, section of the population. This raises important questions
about the victor’s democratic legitimacy. Just over a year ago, in May 2015,
the British people elected a centre-right Government led by a
liberal-conservative Prime Minister. If Andrea Leadsom is elected leader by
Conservative party members, we could well end up with a Government of the hard
right. Leadsom, and her allies, are very different beasts from Cameron and his
associates. They are assertively anti-EU, to the point that they would be
prepared to undermine Britain’s economy to loosen our relationship with Europe,
socially conservative on issues like gay marriage and pander heavily to
minority interests on subjects such as fox hunting. In short, a Government led
by Andrea Leadsom could look very different ideologically from the one the
British people thought they were electing in May 2015.
In addition
if Leadsom becomes Prime Minister she will do so against the wishes of the
majority of Conservative MPs. In the final round of voting by the Parliamentary
party she had the support of just 84 MPs, as opposed to 199 for Theresa May.
The problem with this is that Conservative MPs clearly represent a far larger
group of people, and therefore can provide greater democratic legitimacy, than
Conservative Party members. In short if Leadsom does become Prime Minister she
will have to call a General Election to establish basic democratic legitimacy.
She’s too ideologically distinct from Cameron to be legitimised by the latter’s
2015 election victory, and she’s opposed by the majority of Conservative MPs
who have a much stronger mandate than the party members. By contrast May, who
is ideologically comparable with Cameron and has the support of a strong
majority of Conservative MPs, would have full democratic legitimacy. If Leadsom
wins however, and fails to call a General Election, she will struggle to be
accepted, let alone respected, by a good proportion of the general public.
In short
Britain needs a strong, experienced leader to confront the economic and
constitutional difficulties caused by the Brexit vote. The stakes could hardly
be higher. Britain’s survival as a political entity hangs in the balance, due
to the threat of parts of the Union leaving. May fulfils the necessary
criteria, and would clearly have democratic legitimacy as Prime Minister.
Leadsom, I’m afraid, does not, and if she becomes Prime Minister would need to
call a snap election to establish legitimacy. The Conservative Party, to its
credit, is about to give us our second female Prime Minister. But it matters
enormously which candidate they select, and I hope for the countries sake they
select the responsible option.
