On 9 November the American people elected an
aspiring despot, admittedly by a minority of votes cast, to be their next
President. This, considering America’s long history as both the defender and
exemplar of liberal-democratic values, is more than depressing. Until this
point the American people have been almost uniquely resistant to the appeal of
tyrants, demagogues and authoritarians. Trump’s election has smashed this jewel
of American exceptionalism. I see no advantage in deceiving ourselves about
what Trump is. He’s an authoritarian nationalist who violated just about every
norm of democratic conduct during the election campaign. As I argued in this piece
he cannot reasonably be described as a democrat. One of the things I find most galling
about Trump’s rise is just how mediocre, uninspiring and fundamentally poor he
is as a demagogue. I’d like to think that for a democracy as advanced as
America’s to elect an autocrat it would take a politician of exceptional charm,
eloquence and cunning. America, alas, has been seduced by a barely coherent
cartoon villain.
Trump’s election as President is so disastrous for
the democratic world because of the extent to which this world has been led and
protected by, and often aspired to emulate, the United States of America.
America has long provided a model, though admittedly an imperfect one, for
other democracies to follow, and this has been particularly important for
countries as they democratise. Much of Latin America, as well as parts of East
Asia and Europe essentially copied the American Presidential system wholesale
when drawing up their constitutions. The wealth and strength of America was the
supreme vindication of the effectiveness of the liberal-democratic system of
government, and no other liberal-democratic power has come close to matching
America’s influence or prestige. The great democratisation of the 20th
century, which saw an explosion of the liberal-democratic form of Government,
was largely facilitated by American economic and military muscle. According to
Oxford University’s One World in Data
(OWID) the number of democracies in the
world increased from 17 in 1944, to 87 in 2009, during the period of peak
American power.
Between 1941 and the present day America played a
decisive role in helping defend liberal-democracy from rival ideologies, most
notably fascism and Soviet communism, and in preventing a return to world
politics based around imperialism. A number of the world’s most successful and
secure democracies, such as Germany and Japan, were established or
re-established at the point of an American gun. Other democratic powers played
an important role of course, most notably Britain and France, but both these
states initially relied heavily on non-democratic overseas empires for their
strength. It’s only when you appreciate just how important America has been in
promoting the liberal-democratic order, that you realise how disastrous it will
be for the West to have a President who is not truly a democrat.
American democracy is well established, mature and
(until around a year ago) looked incredibly stable. As such you might have
thought it would take a demagogue of exceptional talent and cunning to seduce
the American people with authoritarianism. But if that’s what you assumed, and
I certainly used to, then you were wrong. Instead it took an orange-faced buffoon with unusual
hair, and a pennant for insulting a good proportion of the American population.
Maybe Trump has some positive attributes, but they certainly don’t include
intellectual consistency, personal morality or individual charm. Many
demagogues give their followers powerful and inspiring speeches. Trump’s
speeches during the election campaign by contrast were barely coherent. He had
a tendency to go off onto wild, often irrelevant tangents, whilst engaging is
an embarrassing amount of self-praise. Sometimes it appeared that he had
descended into a parody of his own act.
Now of course there are some things Trump is
extremely good at. During the election campaign he proved a master at
exploiting concerns about ethnic and cultural change, via assertive white
identity politics. But he combined this with an extraordinary capacity for
self-destruction. At several points during both the Republican Primaries and
Presidential election it looked like he had detonated his own campaign. During
the Republican Primaries he disputed John McCain’s status as a war hero and
claimed without evidence that Ted Cruz’s father was linked to the Kennedy
assassination. Having got the Republican Party nomination he proceeded to
engage in a public row with the parents of a dead Muslim American soldier. Even
in the last few weeks, as President-Elect, Trump seems determined to court
controversy. As evidence grows that the Russian Government hacked the DNC email
system to help Trump the sensible thing would have been to stay quiet or try
and change the subject. Instead Trump has praised Putin and Russia on Twitter,
whilst de-facto criticising the American security apparatus.
Quite often when demagogues acquire power the host
country has the excuse that it was going through a time of crisis. Most
frequently the economy had collapsed, causing a dramatic rise in unemployment
or destitution. Alternatively the country might be threatened by a hostile
state, leading to calls for unity behind a single individual, or some section
of the military might take over. None of these reasons are valid in the case of
the United States and Trump. America is not facing an existential threat from any
external power. ISIS is no more than a nuisance compared to a credible
opponent, whilst Trump is actually friendly towards Russia, one of America’s
main geo-political rivals. The American unemployment rate for October 2016 was 4.9%,
low by comparison to European states, whilst the country has enjoyed solid (if
unspectacular) economic growth over the last few years. Thus America, despite
her advanced democratic institutions and history, elected a particularly
unimpressive demagogue during a period of solid economic growth and
international security.
The election of Donald Trump is, for supporters of
liberal-democratic values, nothing less than a disaster. The world’s most
powerful country, a state which has done much to protect the free world for
over half a century, will soon be governed by an unstable authoritarian
nationalist. Trump did not abide by democratic norms during the election
campaign, and there’s no reason to think this is likely to change following his
inauguration. Great power rarely makes men less corrupt. So the free world will
soon have to deal with an American President who’s commitment to democracy, in
any recognized form, is at best dubious and more likely non-existent. This has
big implications for liberal-democracy both in America, and in those sections
of the Western world that America helps protect.
But what is particularly disheartening is the
quality of demagogue to which America has fallen, and the conditions in which
this took place. America has elected an ultra-authoritarian, a man who feels
like he’s been ripped straight from the pages of some dystopian novel, during a
period of steady economic growth and relative security. Trump is intellectually
unimpressive, largely devoid of personal charm and clearly unstable. It would
be one of the most tragic ironies of modern history if a democracy as great as
America’s becomes redefined by a demagogue as poor as Donald Trump. Please
America, for all our sakes, don’t let this happen.
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